2012年中国观察 形势不明，首要求稳
Published 16 Dec 2011 11:15 by media
上周举行的中央经济工作会议明确宏观经济政策并未发生重大改变，但是会议谨慎的语调值得注意。内需仍是经济的主要支柱，但是政府需要谨慎平衡增长和通胀之间的关系。继续坚持“积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策”这一组合，对增长的刺激应有所缓和。货币政策可能更长时期“按兵不动”，但大幅放松政策可能增加本已纷扰的财政和金融风险。增长可能进一步降温。通胀风险仍然存在，需注意利率走高；全球动荡持续，亦需要注意汇率波动加大的风险。
经济展望
鉴于目前的全球形势，短时间内出口不会出现反弹，而好的一面是出口对经济的影响也已经降低。由于贸易行业的相对收缩，我们估计发达国家的增长率每降低1个百分点（鉴于目前疲弱的基本预期，这属于非常巨大的动荡），将导致目前中国的国内生产总值增长率降低0.7-0.9个百分点，与雷曼危机前发生同样幅度的动荡时对增长率的影响相比，这一幅度的可控制性更高。中国贸易目的地的多元化也有所帮助，目前中国对新兴市场经济体的出口占总出口的40%。假设发达经济体继续非常缓慢的复苏（尤其是美国的前景已经改善），而新兴市场/发展中市场的增长仍较快，我们预期2012年的出口量将与2011年一样实现小幅增长（约为8%）；但如11月份的数据所展现的那样，下行的风险依然非常明显。更广泛地来看，外国需求对推动增长的作用在未来几年将进一步降低。
对短期增长而言，更为关键的是内需是否能够如过去三年那样坚挺。我们认为，尽管2012年的商业住房投资可能保持疲软，但仍存在多个利好因素：
1) 中国继续坚持积极的财政政策。全球危机发生以来，预算收入和支出一直双双保持扩张态势，并且还可能进一步增加。预算外的公共投资项目（例如保障性住房和农业基本建设）也将继续上升。
2) 农业和制造业投资将保持强劲（占全部投资的40%左右），从而为整体投资带来支撑。最近一轮货币政策紧缩周期期间制造业投资的强劲尤其值得注意，表明企业利润情况良好。
3) 旨在增加居民家庭和中小企业收入的税务政策也将有助于提升家庭消费，尤其对中期消费而言的影响可能比较显著。总体上我们预期明年的增长将放缓至平均8.5%左右的水平。
与此同时，政府亦将密切注意通胀风险。过去两个月来通胀趋势一直在不断改善，这部分归功于基数效应，但通胀指数仍然高企，食品类通胀的社会影响不容忽视。更广泛地说，如我们之前所指出的那样，通胀-增长关系已经变得不那么乐观，食品供应和服务等非贸易行业可能因为供应紧张的关系而尤其面临强大的价格压力。部分领域的供应形势最近已经出现好转，但整体的供应形势的改善可能呈不均衡状态。我们预期明年通胀将会缓和，但仍然高于政府4%的目标。
经济的下行风险之一体现在若房地产和基础设施投资的下滑超过预期，而公共投资的力度短期不能抵消其下滑，就意味着投资将大幅减速（房地产和基础设施投资分别占总投资的20%和10%，合计占国内生产总值的15%）。另外全球形势的发展风险巨大，若欧债危机严重恶化，全球金融经济形势会出现大幅波动和下滑。目前苏格兰皇家银行预测欧洲会出现技术性衰退， 应当说基于目前形势来看这是相对温和的判断。尽管中国有应对的政策空间，包括加快社会保障性住房建设，但仍然存在不能迅速、充分地出台政策的可能。同时，通胀和金融领域的风险也意味着与2008/09年相比，应对增长放缓的政策宽松可能需要更加审慎。在这种情况下，增长减速的幅度可能超过预期。须强调的是，这与金融危机导致的硬着陆情形明显不同。在我们看来，这种金融危机引起的剧烈紧缩尚不构成主要风险，因为目前公共部门和私人部门的资产负债情况良好。另外，高储蓄加上整体宽松的政策环境，包括低水平的利率，可能使投资在政策信号逆转时发生反弹。
政策支持受到制约
最近举行的明年经济工作会议的政策信号基本稳定。全球形势变化不断，前景亦不明朗，中国政府再次重申保稳定增长的承诺，将坚持“积极的财政政策和适度从紧的货币政策”这一组合，同时强调结构性调整的作用。总的说来，与2008年相比，决策者可用的政策空间相对有限。宏观政策强调微调和针对性，一方面是着眼中期增长，同时也反映了客观经济和政策环境的制约。c
在财政方面，税收措施（家庭和中小企业减免税）和加大对社会保障网络的投入是新的亮点。这些要素有利于结构调整，但对近期增长的刺激作用可能要小于往年的公共投资支出（例如减税的倍增作用一般要小于公共投资支出的倍增作用）。在支出方面，在已有的在建项目之外社会保障性住房和农业基本建设是新的重点领域。我们认为支出的增量的速度可能会放缓——全球增长不振的长期性意味着与2008年时相比，政府需要在利用财政空间上更加谨慎。
货币政策放松的空间受限。首先，2012及以后几年，2009/2010年扩张性政策导致的巨额存量信贷将促使政府继续抑制信贷增长，同时逐步将风险从银行分散开来。尽管最近出现减速，估计银行融资仍占国内生产总值的153%左右，与2010年类似，但比2008年高35个百分点。我们之前论述过，从政府和私有部门行业资产负债表来看，行业负债率仍然健康，系统性风险有限。但风险向银行过度集中始终是一大问题，亦制约了更广泛的利率改革。2012年，由于部分地方政府借款相继到期，我们预期将有政策出台将部分银行借款转化为政府明确负债，以减少银行风险。最近的地方政府债务试点计划就是一个例子。与此同时，银行的进一步资产负债表扩张将继续受到严格监管。
其次，利率已经处于低水平，意味着不太可能降息。实际上，低存款回报和扩张性财政政策支持下的实际利率不断上升之间的冲突，将继续对银行的脱媒化产生压力。因而，银行为了吸引存款而大量推出“理财产品”，使实际利率高于基准利率。我们保持基准利率将继续提高的判断。这将有助于缩小基准利率与真实利率和投资经济回报率之间的差距。但是，持续的全球动荡使这种加息可能被推迟。
再次，这使存款准备金率成为展现政策支持的一大工具。12月初，中国中央银行三年来首次下调银行存款准备金率，而没有采用通常的通过公开市场操作注入流动性。虽然从技术上看，这是因为最近几个月国际收支盈余的下降所致，但我们认为流动性压力并非如外汇储备下降所表现的那样严重，贸易顺差和收益率差距也依然支持在岸流动性条件。下调存款准备金率对银行贷款的实际影响也可能有限。理论上，存款准备金率的下调将有利于受流动性比率约束的银行增加贷款。然而，由于信贷总额受其他审慎监管要求控制，目前尚不明确存款准备金率的下调将实际上导致贷款增加。实际上，超额准备金率已经在9月底恢复到占存款总额的1.4%，因此存款准备金率的下调亦可能会反映在超额准备金率的进一步上升。我们认为，最近以及未来可能的存款准备金率下调更重要的作用是发出政策支持的信号。
市场影响
由于通胀风险依然存在，利率仍可能面临上升压力。财政扩张和货币紧缩的政策组合也可能对利率产生压力。与前些年相比，财政扩张所需的融资将可能更多通过债券而不是通过放松货币政策和信贷扩张实现。由于上述的金融风险，银行的资产负债表的扩张应更为审慎。同时财政扩张的方向部分从支出措施转向收入措施，后者更易通过债券融资进行。
通常与基准利率和央行债券发行利率保持一致的一年期利率掉期，在十一月已经大大低于这两个利率，因为市场预期将会出台类似于2008年晚期的货币政策宽松措施。这种对政策支持的预期可能落空：如CPI扩展指数所示，通胀预期仍然居高不下，同时与2008年相比增长受外需影响相对有限。与此相比，2008年大力推出货币政策宽松措施时，不论是实际通胀还是通胀预期都已稳步下行，实际利率为负的局面基本上得到纠正，同时由于当时对出口的依赖程度更高，工业生产也跌至历史低点。
汇率方面，我们保持人民币汇率的双向波动的预期。首先，中国外贸顺差的持续下滑和实际升值的加速正在消除升值压力。事实上，随着中国经济转向内需驱动型的增长，非贸易行业的增长速度继续快于贸易行业，我们预期内部汇率将继续升值。其次，从技术层面上看，在岸和离岸市场汇率之间的联系意味着汇率牌价不再是人民币的唯一驱动因素。在岸汇率也可以感受到离岸市场的压力。当然，由于市场参与者的不同和在岸市场波动区间的限制，在岸与离岸市场仍可能保持差价。政府可能日益参考市场的行为来确定汇率，允许更大幅度的双向波动，避免调控过度。但在双向波动增加的同时应强调的是，人民币仍然受中国庞大的净对外资产头寸支撑，与在国际市场上属于净债务国的其他新兴市场货币相比，应该会表现相对强势。2008年的经验表明，国际市场上净债务国的货币贬值最为严重。
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